We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown. We establish distributional consistency of the bootstrap transition estimator in both a single long-chain regime and the episodic offline RL regime. The key technical tools are a novel bootstrap law of large numbers (LLN) for the visitation counts and a novel use of the martingale central limit theorem (CLT) for the bootstrap transition increments. We extend bootstrap distributional consistency to the downstream targets of offline policy evaluation (OPE) and optimal policy recovery (OPR) via the delta method by verifying Hadamard differentiability of the Bellman operators, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and $Q$-functions. Experiments on the RiverSwim problem show that the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), especially the percentile CIs, outperform the episodic bootstrap and plug-in CLT CIs, and are often close to nominal ($50\%$, $90\%$, $95\%$) coverage, while the baselines are poorly calibrated at small sample sizes and short episode lengths.

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Offline policy learning is aimed at learning decision-making policies using existing datasets of trajectories without collecting additional data. The primary motivation for using reinforcement learning (RL) instead of supervised learning techniques such as behavior cloning is to find a policy that achieves a higher average return than the trajectories constituting the dataset. However, we empirically find that when a dataset is dominated by suboptimal trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms do not substantially improve over the average return of trajectories in the dataset. We argue this is due to an assumption made by current offline RL algorithms of staying close to the trajectories in the dataset. If the dataset primarily consists of sub-optimal trajectories, this assumption forces the policy to mimic the suboptimal actions. We overcome this issue by proposing a sampling strategy that enables the policy to only be constrained to "good data" rather than all actions in the dataset (i.e., uniform sampling). We present a realization of the sampling strategy and an algorithm that can be used as a plug-and-play module in standard offline RL algorithms. Our evaluation demonstrates significant performance gains in 72 imbalanced datasets, D4RL dataset, and across three different offline RL algorithms.

Offline imitation from observations aims to solve MDPs where only task-specific expert states and task-agnostic non-expert state-action pairs are available. Offline imitation is useful in real-world scenarios where arbitrary interactions are costly and expert actions are unavailable. The state-of-the-art'DIstribution Correction Estimation' (DICE) methods minimize divergence of state occupancy between expert and learner policies and retrieve a policy with weighted behavior cloning; however, their results are unstable when learning from incomplete trajectories, due to a non-robust optimization in the dual domain. To address the issue, in this paper, we propose Trajectory-Aware Imitation Learning from Observations (TAILO). TAILO uses a discounted sum along the future trajectory as the weight for weighted behavior cloning. The terms for the sum are scaled by the output of a discriminator, which aims to identify expert states. Despite simplicity, TAILO works well if there exist trajectories or segments of expert behavior in the task-agnostic data, a common assumption in prior work. In experiments across multiple testbeds, we find TAILO to be more robust and effective, particularly with incomplete trajectories.